We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our data set includes over 27 million articles for 26 major newspapers in 5 different languages. The evidence indicates that these sentiment indicators are significant predictors to forecast macroeconomic variables and their predictive content is robust to controlling for other indicators available to forecasters in real-time.
翻译:我们评估了基于新闻的情绪指标在预测五个主要欧洲经济体的国内生产总值及其他宏观经济变量方面的信息内容。我们的数据集包含来自5种不同语言的26家主要报纸的超过2700万篇文章。证据表明,这些情绪指标是预测宏观经济变量的重要预测因子,且其预测能力在面对预测者可实时获取的其他指标控制下仍保持稳健。