We present a nonparametric statistical test for determining whether an agent is following a given mixed strategy in a repeated strategic-form game given samples of the agent's play. This involves two components: determining whether the agent's frequencies of pure strategies are sufficiently close to the target frequencies, and determining whether the pure strategies selected are independent between different game iterations. Our integrated test involves applying a chi-squared goodness of fit test for the first component and a generalized Wald-Wolfowitz runs test for the second component. The results from both tests are combined using Bonferroni correction to produce a complete test for a given significance level $\alpha.$ We applied the test to publicly available data of human rock-paper-scissors play. The data consists of 50 iterations of play for 500 human players. We test with a null hypothesis that the players are following a uniform random strategy independently at each game iteration. Using a significance level of $\alpha = 0.05$, we conclude that 305 (61%) of the subjects are following the target strategy.
翻译:我们提出了一种非参数统计检验方法,用于在给定智能体重复博弈行为样本的条件下,判定该智能体是否遵循某个给定的混合策略。该检验包含两个组成部分:一是判断智能体采用纯策略的频率是否足够接近目标频率,二是判断不同博弈轮次间所选择的纯策略是否相互独立。我们的综合检验方法对第一部分采用卡方拟合优度检验,对第二部分采用广义Wald-Wolfowitz游程检验。通过Bonferroni校正将两部分检验结果合并,最终形成针对给定显著性水平$\alpha$的完整检验方案。我们将该检验应用于公开的人类石头剪刀布博弈数据。该数据集包含500名人类玩家各50轮的游戏记录。我们以"玩家在每轮游戏中独立遵循均匀随机策略"作为零假设进行检验。在显著性水平设为$\alpha = 0.05$的条件下,我们得出结论:305名(61%)受试者遵循目标策略。