In the future situation, aiming to seek more resources, human beings decided to march towards the mysterious and bright starry sky, which opened the era of great interstellar exploration. According to the Outer Space Treaty, any exploration of celestial bodies should be aimed at promoting global equality and for the benefit of all nations. Firstly, we defined global equity and set a Unified Equity Index (UEI) model to measure it. We merge the factors with greater correlation, and finally, get 6 elements, and then use the entropy method (TEM) to find the dispersion of these elements in different countries. Then use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dispersion, and then use the scandalized index to obtain the global equity. Secondly, we simulated a future with asteroid mining and evaluated its impact on Unified Equity Index (UEI). Then, we divided the mineable asteroids into three classes with different mining difficulties and values, identified 28 mining entities including private companies, national and international organizations. We considered changes in the asteroid classes, mining capabilities and mining scales to determine the changes in the value of minerals mined between 2025 and 2085. We convert mining output value into mineral transaction value through allocation matrix. Based on grey relational analysis (GRA). Finally, we presented three possible versions of the future of asteroid mining by changing the conditions. We propose two sets of corresponding policies for changes in future trends in global fairness with asteroid mining. We test the separate and combined effects of these policies and find that they are positive, strongly supporting the effectiveness of our model.
翻译:在未来情境下,人类为寻求更多资源而迈向神秘璀璨的星空,开启了星际大探索时代。根据《外层空间条约》,任何天体探索均应旨在促进全球平等并造福所有国家。首先,我们定义了全球公平,并建立了统一公平指数(UEI)模型进行衡量。我们合并相关性较高的因素,最终得到6个要素,随后采用熵值法(TEM)计算这些要素在不同国家间的离散程度。接着利用主成分分析(PCA)对离散度进行降维,再通过标准化指数求得全球公平值。其次,我们模拟了包含小行星采矿的未来场景,并评估其对统一公平指数(UEI)的影响。随后,将可开采小行星按开采难度与价值分为三类,识别出包括私营公司、国家及国际组织在内的28个采矿实体。考虑小行星类别、开采能力与开采规模的变化,确定2025年至2085年间矿产开采价值的变化。通过分配矩阵将采矿产出价值转化为矿产交易价值,基于灰色关联分析(GRA)进行处理。最后,通过改变条件提出小行星采矿的三种可能未来版本。针对全球公平在引入小行星采矿后的未来趋势变化,提出两套对应政策。我们测试了这些政策的单独及组合效果,发现其均呈正向作用,有力支持了模型的有效性。