One Health issues, such as the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza~(HPAI), present significant challenges at the human-animal-environmental interface. Recent H5N1 outbreaks underscore the need for comprehensive modeling efforts that capture the complex interactions between various entities in these interconnected ecosystems. To support such efforts, we develop a methodology to construct a synthetic spatiotemporal gridded dataset of livestock production and processing, human population, and wild birds for the contiguous United States, called a \emph{digital similar}. This representation is a result of fusing diverse datasets using statistical and optimization techniques, followed by extensive verification and validation. The livestock component includes farm-level representations of four major livestock types -- cattle, poultry, swine, and sheep -- including further categorization into subtypes such as dairy cows, beef cows, chickens, turkeys, ducks, etc. Weekly abundance data for wild bird species identified in the transmission of avian influenza are included. Gridded distributions of the human population, along with demographic and occupational features, capture the placement of agricultural workers and the general population. We demonstrate how the digital similar can be applied to evaluate spillover risk to dairy cows and poultry from wild bird population, then validate these results using historical H5N1 incidences. The resulting subtype-specific spatiotemporal risk maps identify hotspots of high risk from H5N1 infected wild bird population to dairy cattle and poultry operations, thus guiding surveillance efforts.
翻译:"同一健康"议题,如高致病性禽流感(HPAI)的传播,在人类-动物-环境界面提出了重大挑战。近期H5N1疫情的暴发凸显了需要建立能够捕捉这些相互关联生态系统中各类实体间复杂相互作用的综合建模工作。为支持此类研究,我们开发了一种构建美国本土家畜生产与加工、人口及野生鸟类合成时空网格化数据集的方法,称为"数字孪生体"。该表征是通过运用统计与优化技术融合多源数据集,并经过广泛验证后形成的。家畜模块包含四种主要家畜类型——牛、禽类、猪和羊——的农场级表征,并进一步细分为奶牛、肉牛、鸡、火鸡、鸭等亚型。同时纳入了在禽流感传播中被识别的野生鸟类物种的周度丰度数据。人口的空间网格化分布及其人口统计学与职业特征,捕捉了农业工人与普通人群的分布格局。我们展示了如何应用该数字孪生体评估野生鸟类种群向奶牛和禽类的溢出风险,并利用历史H5N1发病数据验证了评估结果。最终生成的亚型特异性时空风险图识别了从H5N1感染野生鸟类种群向奶牛场和禽类养殖场传播的高风险热点区域,从而为监测工作提供指导。