Policymaking for complex challenges such as pandemics necessitates the consideration of intricate implications across multiple domains and scales. Computational models can support policymaking, but a single model is often insufficient for such multidomain and scale challenges. Multi-models comprising several interacting computational models at different scales or relying on different modeling paradigms offer a potential solution. Such multi-models can be assembled from existing computational models (i.e., integrated modeling) or be designed conceptually as a whole before their computational implementation (i.e., integral modeling). Integral modeling is particularly valuable for novel policy problems, such as those faced in the early stages of a pandemic, where relevant models may be unavailable or lack standard documentation. Designing such multi-models through an integral approach is, however, a complex task requiring the collaboration of modelers and experts from various domains. In this collaborative effort, modelers must precisely define the domain knowledge needed from experts and establish a systematic procedure for translating such knowledge into a multi-model. Yet, these requirements and systematic procedures are currently lacking for multi-models that are both multiscale and multi-paradigm. We address this challenge by introducing a procedure for developing multi-models with an integral approach based on clearly defined domain knowledge requirements derived from literature. We illustrate this procedure using the case of school closure policies in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing their potential implications in the short and long term and across the healthcare and educational domains. The requirements and procedure provided in this article advance the application of integral multi-modeling for policy support in multiscale and multidomain contexts.

翻译：应对流行病等复杂挑战的政策制定，需要考量跨多个领域和尺度的错综复杂的影响。计算模型能够支持政策制定，但单一模型往往不足以应对此类多领域、多尺度的挑战。由多个不同尺度或基于不同建模范式的交互计算模型组成的多模型，提供了一种潜在解决方案。这类多模型可通过整合现有计算模型（即集成建模）构建，也可在计算实现前进行整体概念设计（即综合建模）。对于新型政策问题（例如疫情初期面临的问题，此时相关模型可能尚不存在或缺乏标准文档），综合建模尤为有价值。然而，通过综合方法设计此类多模型是一项复杂任务，需要建模者与各领域专家的协作。在此协作过程中，建模者必须精确界定所需领域知识的范畴，并建立将此类知识转化为多模型的系统性流程。然而，对于同时具备多尺度与多范式特征的多模型，目前尚缺乏这些明确要求与系统化流程。我们通过引入一种基于文献中明确定义的领域知识需求的综合方法开发多模型的流程，来应对这一挑战。我们以COVID-19疫情期间荷兰的学校关闭政策为例，展示了该流程的应用，揭示了其在短期与长期以及医疗与教育领域的潜在影响。本文提供的需求与流程，推动了综合多模型建模在跨尺度、跨领域政策支持中的应用。