Accurate performance analysis for near-shore maritime wireless communication is essential for ensuring robust and reliable operations. However, existing analytical models often rely on oversimplified propagation assumptions, such as a perfectly smooth sea surface, which fail to capture the full dynamics of the maritime channel. In this paper, we develop a physically grounded analytical framework using stochastic geometry that bridges this gap. The spatial distribution of vessels is modeled as a non-homogeneous Poisson point process to reflect realistic near-port densities. We replace the idealized smooth-sea assumption by deriving a novel reflection coefficient from the classical Rayleigh criterion, which explicitly links the path loss to the significant wave height. Integrating this roughness-aware channel model into the stochastic geometry framework, we derive new analytical expressions for the uplink coverage probability and average ergodic rate, providing the first tractable characterization of aggregate interference under such dynamic conditions. The analysis reveals a sea-state-dependent reliability--capacity trade-off: roughness-induced attenuation of the coherent specular reflection can suppress destructive-interference nulls and improve reliability-oriented coverage, while reducing high-SINR and average-rate performance. Available measurements support the underlying roughness-sensitive reflection mechanism, but direct VHF validation under rough sea conditions remains unavailable; the corresponding rough-sea results are therefore interpreted as model-based predictions. A cross-frequency ablation further confirms the wavelength dependence of the roughness effect and shows that the reflection coefficient must be evaluated for the operating frequency.

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