Traffic systems can operate in different modes. In a previous work, we identified these modes as different quasi-stationary states in the correlation structure. Here, we analyze the transitions between such quasi-stationary states, i.e., how the system changes its operational mode. In the longer run this might be helpful to forecast the time evolution of correlation patterns in traffic. We take Cologne orbital motorways as an example, we construct a state transition network for each quarter of 2015 and find a seasonal dependence for those quasi-stationary states in the traffic system. Using the PageRank algorithm, we identify and explore the dominant states which occur frequently within a moving time window of 60 days in 2015. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this type for traffic systems.

翻译：交通系统可以在不同的模式下运行。在前期工作中，我们将这些模式识别为相关结构中的不同准稳态。本文分析了这些准稳态之间的转变，即系统如何改变其运行模式。长期来看，这可能有助于预测交通中相关模式的时间演化。以科隆环城高速公路为例，我们构建了2015年每个季度的状态转移网络，并发现交通系统中这些准稳态存在季节依赖性。利用PageRank算法，我们识别并研究了2015年60天移动时间窗口内频繁出现的优势状态。据我们所知，这是首次针对交通系统开展此类研究。