We show that the leading bubble test suffers severe size distortion when fundamentals incorporate general-purpose technology adoption. Embedding a hump-shaped technology shock in the Campbell-Shiller present-value model, we prove that the fundamental price becomes locally explosive during adoption, contaminating the test's limit distribution with a non-centrality parameter proportional to the shock's peak. We propose a fundamental-versus-speculative decomposition that projects prices onto observable technology proxies and applies the test to the residual. Empirically, the decomposition eliminates evidence of speculation in the 2020-2025 AI rally while confirming a speculative peak confined to December 1999-March 2000 in the dot-com episode.

翻译：我们表明，当基本面包含通用目的技术的采用时，主流泡沫检验会遭受严重的规模扭曲。将驼峰型技术冲击嵌入坎贝尔-席勒现值模型中，我们证明在技术采用期间基本面价格会变得局部爆炸性，从而在检验的极限分布中引入一个与冲击峰值成比例的非中心性参数。我们提出一种基本面与投机成分的分解方法，将价格投影到可观测的技术代理变量上，并对残差应用该检验。实证上，该分解消除了2020-2025年人工智能上涨中投机的证据，同时确认互联网泡沫时期投机峰值仅局限于1999年12月至2000年3月。