Robots deployed over long periods must reason about environments that change over time. Existing long-term perception systems often address object change reactively, updating their maps only after revisiting a scene and observing that an object has moved. Instead, robots should reason proactively about how long objects are likely to persist using the context in which they appear. For example, a car at a traffic light and a car in a parking spot share the same semantic class, but their contexts imply different persistence durations. We propose PreSIST (Predictive Scene-conditioned Instance Survival over Time), a method for predicting whether an observed object will remain in its last seen pose at arbitrary future times. PreSIST estimates instance-level persistence priors from object properties and scene context, then integrates these priors with a probabilistic persistence filter as observations become available. Its key insight is that the reasoning capabilities of vision-language models (VLMs) can relate scene context to likely object use and human activity, enabling persistence prediction before long-term observations are available. We develop two interchangeable variants: PreSIST-Lang, which estimates persistence priors using a VLM, and PreSIST-Vis, a novel vision-only model trained using PreSIST-Lang pseudo-labels for efficient deployment. Experiments on a new dataset of in-the-wild object persistence annotations show that PreSIST-Lang and PreSIST-Vis outperform baselines on open-world persistence prediction.

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