How scientists navigate between the need to capitalize on their prior knowledge by specializing, and the urge to adapt to evolving research opportunities? Drawing from diverse perspectives on adaptation, in particular from institutional change and cultural evolution, this paper proposes a Bayesian model of the evolution of scientists' research portfolios in response to transformations in their field. The model relies on scientific abstracts and authorship data to evaluate the influence of intellectual, social, and institutional resources on scientists' trajectories within a cohort of $2\,195$ high-energy physicists between 2000 and 2019. The reallocation of research efforts is shown to be structured by learning costs, thus enhancing the utility of the scientific capital disseminated among scientists. Two dimensions of social capital, namely ``diversity'' and ``power'', have opposite effects on the magnitude of change in scientists' research interests: while ``diversity'' disrupts and expands research interests, ``power'' stabilizes physicists' research agendas -- as does institutional stability. Social capital plays a more crucial role in shifts between cognitively distant research areas.

翻译：科学家如何在专业化（深耕现有知识）与适应性（捕捉新兴研究机遇）之间做出权衡？本文整合制度变迁与文化演化视角，构建了一个贝叶斯模型，用以描述科学家研究组合随领域转型演化的过程。该模型借助科学摘要与作者数据，评估智力资源、社会资源与制度资源对2000-2019年间2195位高能物理学家科研轨迹的影响。研究表明，研究投入的重新配置受学习成本驱动，从而提升了科学家群体中科学资本的效用。社会资本的两个维度——"多样性"与"权力"——对科学家研究兴趣的变化幅度呈现相反效应："多样性"打破并拓展研究兴趣，而"权力"则稳定物理学家的研究议程（制度稳定性亦具此效应）。在认知距离遥远的研究领域间迁移时，社会资本发挥着更为关键的作用。