In this work we propose a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for modelling health related quality of life (HRQoL) over a lifespan. HRQoL is assumed to be bounded between 0 and 1, equivalent to death and perfect health, respectively. Drift and diffusion parameters of the SDE are chosen to mimic decreasing HRQoL over life and ensuring epidemiological meaningfulness. The Euler-Maruyama method is used to simulate trajectories of individuals in a population of n = 1000 people. Age of death of an individual is simulated as a stopping time with Weibull distribution conditioning the current value of HRQoL as time-varying covariate. The life expectancy and health adjusted life years are compared to the corresponding values for German women.
翻译:本文提出一种用于模拟全生命周期健康相关生活质量(HRQoL)的随机微分方程(SDE)。假设HRQoL取值介于0与1之间,分别对应死亡与完全健康状态。通过选取SDE的漂移项与扩散项参数,以刻画HRQoL随年龄增长而递减的特性,并确保流行病学意义的合理性。采用Euler-Maruyama方法对包含n=1000个个体的群体进行轨迹模拟。个体死亡年龄被建模为以当前HRQoL值为时变协变量的威布尔分布条件停时。将预期寿命与健康调整生命年与德国女性的对应数值进行比较。