(1) Background: This study employs a simulation-based approach, adapting the waterfall model, to provides estimates for projects and individual phase completion times. Additionally, it pin-points potential efficiency issues stemming from a suboptimal resource level. It further demonstrates how one can go on to identify a resource level that effectively eliminates bottlenecks and curtails the idle time of resources. (2) Methods: We implement our software development lifecycle using SimPy, a discrete-event simulation framework written in Python. Our model is executed on 100 projects of varying sizes over three stages. The first, pre-optimization, provides insight based on the initial set of resources. This is followed by the optimization stage, which serves to identify the optimal number of resources to eliminate bottlenecks and minimize idle time. The third stage, post-optimization, evaluates the resource optimized model. (3) Results: The analysis of the simulation-generated data reveals the presence of resource bottlenecks during the pre-optimization stage, particularly in the implementation phase. These dissipate after optimization. (4) Conclusions: The findings emphasize the advantage of using simulation as a safe and effective way to experiment and plan for software development projects. Such simulations also allow those man-aging software development projects to make accurate, evidence-based projections as to phase and project completion times and identify optimal resource levels and their interplay. In particular, understanding the tradeoffs between experiencing delayed completion times and procuring additional resources to alleviate any bottlenecks.

翻译：（1）背景：本研究采用基于模拟的方法，对瀑布模型进行适配，为项目及各阶段完成时间提供估算依据。同时，该方法可精确定位因资源水平欠佳导致的潜在效率问题，并进一步展示如何确定能有效消除瓶颈并减少资源闲置时间的资源水平。（2）方法：我们使用基于Python编写的离散事件模拟框架SimPy实现软件开发生命周期。模型在100个规模各异的项目上分三个阶段运行：第一阶段为优化前阶段，基于初始资源设置提供分析洞见；随后进入优化阶段，通过识别最佳资源数量来消除瓶颈并最小化闲置时间；第三阶段为优化后阶段，对资源优化后的模型进行评估。（3）结果：模拟生成数据的分析显示，优化前阶段存在资源瓶颈，尤其在实现阶段表现显著，优化后这些瓶颈得以消除。（4）结论：研究结果强调了采用模拟方法作为软件项目安全高效实验与规划手段的优势。此类模拟还能使软件开发项目管理者就阶段与项目完成时间做出精准循证预测，并确定最优资源水平及其相互作用关系，特别是理解项目延期与增购资源缓解瓶颈之间的权衡取舍。