For millennia, human cognition was the primary engine of progress on Earth. As AI decouples cognition from biology, the marginal cost of measurable execution falls to zero, absorbing any labor capturable by metrics--including creative, analytical, and innovative work. The binding constraint on growth is no longer intelligence but human verification bandwidth: the capacity to validate, audit, and underwrite responsibility when execution is abundant. We model the AGI transition as the collision of two racing cost curves: an exponentially decaying Cost to Automate and a biologically bottlenecked Cost to Verify. This structural asymmetry widens a Measurability Gap between what agents can execute and what humans can afford to verify. It also drives a shift from skill-biased to measurability-biased technical change. Rents migrate to verification-grade ground truth, cryptographic provenance, and liability underwriting--the ability to insure outcomes rather than merely generate them. The current human-in-the-loop equilibrium is unstable: eroded from below as apprenticeship collapses (Missing Junior Loop) and from within as experts codify their obsolescence (Codifier's Curse). Unverified deployment becomes privately rational--a Trojan Horse externality. Unmanaged, these forces pull toward a Hollow Economy. Yet by scaling verification alongside agentic capabilities, the forces that threaten collapse become the catalyst for unbounded discovery and experimentation--an Augmented Economy. We derive a practical playbook for individuals, companies, investors, and policymakers. Today's defining challenge is not the race to deploy the most autonomous systems; it is the race to secure the foundations of their oversight. Only by scaling our bandwidth for verification alongside our capacity for execution can we ensure that the intelligence we have summoned preserves the humanity that initiated it.
翻译:数千年来,人类认知一直是地球进步的主要驱动力。随着人工智能将认知与生物学解耦,可度量执行的边际成本降至零,吸收了所有可通过指标捕获的劳动——包括创造性、分析性和创新性工作。增长的约束条件不再是智能,而是人类验证带宽:当执行变得充裕时,验证、审计和承保责任的能力。我们将AGI转型建模为两条竞争性成本曲线的碰撞:指数衰减的自动化成本与受生物瓶颈制约的验证成本。这种结构性不对称扩大了代理能够执行的内容与人类能够负担验证的内容之间的可度量性鸿沟。它还驱动了从技能偏向型向可度量性偏向型技术变革的转变。租金向验证级真实数据、加密溯源和责任承保转移——即保障结果而不仅仅是产生结果的能力。当前人在回路的均衡是不稳定的:从下方因学徒制崩溃而受侵蚀(缺失的初级循环),从内部因专家编码自身过时而受侵蚀(编码者诅咒)。未经验证的部署成为私人理性选择——一种特洛伊木马外部性。若不加以管理,这些力量将把经济引向空心化。然而,通过将验证能力与代理能力同步扩展,那些威胁崩溃的力量将转化为无限发现与实验的催化剂——形成增强型经济。我们为个人、企业、投资者和政策制定者推导出实用行动指南。当今的决定性挑战并非部署最自主系统的竞赛,而是确保其监督基础的竞赛。唯有将我们的验证带宽与执行能力同步扩展,才能确保我们召唤的智能守护那发起它的人类文明。