While most commentators have focused exclusively on how LLMs will transform day-to-day law practice, a substantial structural change could be afoot within the legal sector as a whole. Large increases in productivity and attendant cost savings could encourage law firms and corporate legal departments to develop large language models in-house. A ten percent increase in attorney productivity would encourage an average sized 'Big Law' firm to reduce its associate headcount by 300 to 400 lawyers. This represents cost savings of 60 to 120 million dollars - more than enough to pay for the development of a specialized LLM. Eventually, LLMs will push lawyers into highly specialized and nuanced roles. After fully mature LLMs arrive, the lawyer will continue to play a central role in legal practice, but only in non-routine legal tasks. These tasks will primarily involve value judgments, such as the development of precedent or its reversal, or the allocation of property and other scarce resources. This new mix of lawyer-machine labor, where machines primarily carry out routine legal tasks, and lawyers handle the non-routine, will give rise to a growing demand for lawyers who can exercise good judgment and empathize with the winners and losers of social change. Overall, the Article suggests a possible future where there are fewer lawyers and greater consolidation of the legal sector.

翻译：尽管多数评论家仅聚焦于大型语言模型将如何改变日常法律实践，但整个法律行业可能正在酝酿一场重大的结构性变革。生产率的大幅提升及随之而来的成本节约，可能促使律师事务所和企业法务部门自主开发大型语言模型。若律师生产率提高10%，平均规模的"大型律所"将减少300至400名助理律师，这相当于节省6000万至1.2亿美元——足以支撑专用语言模型的研发。最终，大型语言模型将迫使律师转向高度专业化与精细化的角色。当大型语言模型完全成熟后，律师仍将在法律实践中发挥核心作用，但仅限于处理非常规法律事务。这些任务主要涉及价值判断，例如法律先例的创立或推翻，以及财产等稀缺资源的分配。这种律师与机器的新型分工模式——机器主要负责常规法律事务，律师处理非常规事务——将催生对兼具良好判断力与社会变革共情能力的律师的持续需求。总体而言，本文预见了法律行业可能走向律师数量减少、行业集中度提升的未来图景。