Following a penalty in rugby union, teams typically choose between attempting a shot at goal or kicking to touch to pursue a try. We develop an Expected Points (EP) framework that quantifies the value of each option as a function of both field location and game context. Using phase-level data from the 2018/19 Premiership Rugby season (35,199 phases across 132 matches) and an angle-distance model of penalty kick success estimated from international records, we construct two surfaces: (i) the expected points of a possession beginning with a lineout, and (ii) the expected points of a kick at goal, taking into account the in-game consequences of made and missed kicks. We then compare these surfaces to produce decision maps that indicate where kicking for goal or kicking to touch maximizes expected return, and we analyze how the boundary shifts with game context and the expected meters gained to touch. Our results provide a unified, data-driven method for evaluating penalty decisions and can be tailored to team-specific kickers and lineout units. This study offers, to our knowledge, the first comprehensive EP-based assessment of penalty strategy in rugby union and outlines extensions to win-probability analysis and richer tracking data.

翻译：在橄榄球联盟比赛中，球队在获得判罚后通常面临两种选择：尝试射门得分或将球踢向边线以寻求达阵。我们开发了一个期望得分框架，该框架将每种选择的价值量化为场地位置和比赛情境的函数。利用2018/19赛季英超橄榄球联赛的回合级数据（132场比赛中的35,199个回合）以及基于国际比赛记录估计的点球成功率角度-距离模型，我们构建了两个曲面：（i）以边线球开始进攻的期望得分，以及（ii）考虑射中与射失在比赛中的后果后，点球射门的期望得分。随后，我们通过比较这两个曲面生成决策图，以指示在何处选择射门或踢向边线能最大化期望收益，并分析该边界如何随比赛情境及预期踢向边线的推进距离而变化。我们的研究结果提供了一种统一的、数据驱动的方法来评估判罚决策，并可针对特定球队的踢球手和边线球单元进行定制。据我们所知，本研究首次提出了基于期望得分的橄榄球联盟判罚策略全面评估，并展望了将其扩展至胜率分析及更丰富追踪数据的可能性。