This paper demonstrates that aggregating crowdsourced forecasts benefits from modeling the written justifications provided by forecasters. Our experiments show that the majority and weighted vote baselines are competitive, and that the written justifications are beneficial to call a question throughout its life except in the last quarter. We also conduct an error analysis shedding light into the characteristics that make a justification unreliable.

翻译：本文表明,将多方联动的预测综合起来,得益于对预测者提供的书面理由进行模型化。 我们的实验表明,多数票和加权票基线具有竞争力,书面理由有利于在除最后一个季度外的整个生命周期提出问题。 我们还进行了错误分析,揭示了使理由不可靠的特点。