Bangladesh, situated in the foothills of the Himalayas in South Asia, is a nation characterized by its extensive river network. This riverine state comprises various features such as small hill ranges, meandering seasonal creeks, muddy canals, picturesque rivers, their tributaries, and branching streams. Numerous cities and ports have been established along both sides of these rivers, forming an inseparable connection to the country's civilization and agricultural system. These waterways serve as vital channels for communication and transportation of goods due to their easy accessibility and cost-effectiveness. In Bangladesh, waterway accidents have been a persistent issue. Every year, a significant number of people suffer injuries, fatalities, or go missing due to shipping accidents. While major naval accidents briefly generate public outcry and prompt investigations by the media and authorities, this study aims to examine accident data spanning from 1995 to 2019. The goal is to identify the primary factors contributing to these accidents using multiple linear regression theory in various mathematical combinations. The model's accuracy is validated using different datasets. Additionally, this study delves into the identification of accident-prone areas and the temporal distribution of accidents, offering a comprehensive understanding of accident occurrences. The findings of this research will aid stakeholders and authorities in making informed decisions to prevent waterway accidents. Furthermore, the study presents recommendations focused on accident path planning and avoidance, as well as establishing a theoretical foundation for driver assistance systems.
翻译:孟加拉国位于南亚喜马拉雅山麓,以其密集的河网水系著称。这一河流国家涵盖多种地貌特征,包括低矮丘陵带、蜿蜒的季节性溪流、泥泞运河、风景优美的河流及其支流和分叉水道。沿河两岸分布着众多城市与港口,与国家文明和农业体系形成了不可分割的联系。由于可达性高且成本低廉,这些水道成为交通和货物运输的重要通道。在孟加拉国,航运事故一直是一个持续性问题。每年都有大量人员因船舶事故受伤、死亡或失踪。尽管重大海难事故会短暂引发公众抗议,并促使媒体和当局展开调查,本研究旨在分析1995年至2019年的事故数据,目标是通过多种数学组合中的多元线性回归理论,识别导致事故的主要因素。模型精度已通过不同数据集验证。此外,本研究深入探讨了事故高发区域的识别以及事故的时间分布特征,从而全面理解事故的发生规律。研究成果将有助于利益相关者和当局做出明智决策以预防航运事故。同时,本研究还提出了侧重于事故路径规划与规避的建议,并为驾驶员辅助系统奠定了理论基础。