This paper introduces a formal modeling framework designed to estimate the complexity and cost associated with system changes induced by external requirements. We model a system as a directed graph of couplings, capturing the intricate dependencies and information flows between components and elements within a specific context. The proposed method enables the estimation of bounded change complexity through component interfaces, even when internal logic remains opaque. Additionally, the framework provides a mechanism for bounding the cost of system-wide modifications by associating external drivers and cost factors with individual system elements. We propose a multi-view approach to the model, providing graphical, algebraic, and tabular representations to suit different levels of abstraction and computational needs. By bridging the gap between component-based modeling and project cost estimation, our method provides actionable insights for architecture design, software engineering, and lifecycle operations. The model is validated through a case study involving the integration of a sample retail banking platform.

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