We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based multivariate identification restrictions to inform trend-cycle decomposition, while the alternative model adds the CBO's output gap measure as an observed variable. The latter model results in a smoother output potential and lower cyclical correlation between inflation and real variables but performs worse in forecasting beyond the short term. This methodology allows for the assessment and real-time monitoring of official trend and gap estimates.

翻译：我们提出了两种实时混合频率半结构时间序列模型的设定，用于评估美国的产出潜力、产出缺口、菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律。基线模型采用基于理论的最小化多元识别约束来指导趋势-周期分解，而替代模型则加入了美国国会预算局的产出缺口指标作为观测变量。后一种模型得出的产出潜力更为平滑，通胀与实际变量之间的周期性相关性较低，但在短期以外的预测中表现较差。该方法能够对官方趋势和缺口估计进行评估与实时监测。