This paper presents a novel method using conformal prediction to generate two-sided or one-sided prediction intervals for survival times. Specifically, the method provides both lower and upper predictive bounds for individuals deemed sufficiently similar to the non-censored population, while returning only a lower bound for others. The prediction intervals offer finite-sample coverage guarantees, requiring no distributional assumptions other than the sampled data points are independent and identically distributed. The performance of the procedure is assessed using both synthetic and real-world datasets.
翻译:本文提出了一种利用保形预测生成生存时间双侧或单侧预测区间的新方法。具体而言,该方法为被认为与未删失群体足够相似的个体同时提供预测下界和上界,而对其他个体仅返回预测下界。所构建的预测区间具有有限样本覆盖保证,除要求样本数据点独立同分布外,无需任何分布假设。通过合成数据集和真实世界数据集对该方法的性能进行了评估。