Introduction Lifetime risks quantify health risks from radiation exposure and play an important role in radiation detriment and radon dose conversion. This study considers the lifetime risk of dying from lung cancer related to occupational radon exposure, focusing on lifetime excess absolute risk (LEAR), in addition to other lifetime risk measures. This article derives and discusses uncertainty intervals for these estimates. Methods Uncertainties in two components of lifetime risk calculations are modeled: risk model parameter estimates for excess relative risk of lung cancer and baseline mortality rates. Approximate normality assumption (ANA) methods and Bayesian techniques quantify risk model parameter uncertainty. The methods are applied to risk models from the German "Wismut" uranium miners cohort study (full cohort with follow-up 2018 and the 1960+ sub-cohort of miners hired in 1960 or later). Mortality rate uncertainty is assessed based on WHO data. Monte Carlo simulations yield uncertainty intervals, which are compared across different lifetime risk measures. Results Risk model parameter uncertainty is the largest contributor to lifetime risk uncertainty, with baseline mortality rate uncertainty also significant. For the 1960+ sub-cohort risk model, LEAR was 6.70% (95% uncertainty interval: [3.26, 12.28]) for an exposure of 2 Working Level Months from age 18-64, compared to 3.43% ([2.06, 4.84]) for the full cohort. Differences across lifetime risk measures are minor. Conclusion Here, risk model parameter uncertainty substantially drives lifetime risk uncertainty, supporting the use of ANA methods for practicality. Choice of lifetime risk measures has negligible impact. Derived uncertainty intervals align with the range of lifetime risk estimates from uranium miners studies in the literature and should inform radiation protection policies based on lifetime risks.

翻译：引言：终身风险用于量化辐射暴露的健康风险，在辐射危害评估和氡剂量转换中具有重要作用。本研究关注职业性氡暴露相关肺癌死亡终身风险，重点探讨终身超额绝对风险（LEAR）及其他终身风险度量指标。本文推导并讨论了这些估计值的不确定性区间。方法：对终身风险计算中两个组成部分的不确定性进行建模：肺癌超额相对风险的风险模型参数估计和基线死亡率。采用近似正态假设（ANA）方法和贝叶斯技术量化风险模型参数的不确定性。将方法应用于德国"Wismut"铀矿工队列研究（截至2018年随访的完整队列及1960年及之后雇佣矿工的1960+子队列）的风险模型。基于世界卫生组织数据评估死亡率不确定性。通过蒙特卡洛模拟获得不确定性区间，并比较不同终身风险度量指标的差异。结果：风险模型参数不确定性是终身风险不确定性的主要来源，基线死亡率不确定性亦具有显著影响。对于1960+子队列风险模型，18-64岁期间暴露于2个工作水平月（WLM）的LEAR为6.70%（95%不确定性区间：[3.26, 12.28]），而完整队列为3.43%（[2.06, 4.84]）。不同终身风险度量指标间的差异较小。结论：风险模型参数不确定性是终身风险不确定性的主要驱动因素，支持采用ANA方法以兼顾实用性。终身风险度量指标的选择影响可忽略。推导出的不确定性区间与文献中铀矿工研究的终身风险估计范围一致，应为基于终身风险的辐射防护政策制定提供依据。