Poisson process models are defined in terms of their rates for outage and restore processes in power system resilience events. These outage and restore processes easily yield the performance curves that track the evolution of resilience events, and the area, nadir, and duration of the performance curves are standard resilience metrics. This letter analyzes typical resilience events by analyzing the area, nadir, and duration of mean performance curves. Explicit and intuitive formulas for these metrics are derived in terms of the Poisson process model parameters, and these parameters can be estimated from utility data. This clarifies the calculation of metrics of typical resilience events, and shows what they depend on. The metric formulas are derived with lognormal, exponential, or constant rates of restoration. The method is illustrated with a typical North American transmission event. Similarly nice formulas are obtained for the area metric for empirical power system data.
翻译:电力系统韧性事件中的停电与恢复过程,其速率由泊松过程模型定义。这些停电与恢复过程可轻松生成跟踪韧性事件演变的性能曲线,而性能曲线的面积、最低点和持续时间是标准的韧性指标。本文通过分析平均性能曲线的面积、最低点和持续时间来研究典型韧性事件。基于泊松过程模型参数推导出这些指标的显式直观公式,且这些参数可通过实际数据进行估计。这阐明了典型韧性事件指标的计算方法,并揭示了指标的依赖因素。指标公式适用于对数正态、指数或恒定恢复率场景。以北美典型输电事件为例进行说明。对于经验电力系统数据,面积指标同样获得了简洁的公式形式。