Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.

翻译：社会媒体已成为政治行为者竞选活动的重要舞台。尽管许多研究关注与党派倾向相关的政治竞选，但政治家也可能根据其获胜几率采取不同的竞选策略。例如，领先候选人的竞选行为与边缘候选人不同，反之亦然。然而，我们对这种基于选举胜率差异的社会媒体政治竞选策略知之甚少。本研究通过分析候选人的推文内容（涉及用户、话题及回复情感）来探讨这一问题。研究发现，随着候选人获胜几率的提高，其沟通对象范围逐渐缩小——从普通公众聚焦至选区居民及特定个体（如认证账户或高关注度账户）。本研究通过基于候选人选举处境这一新颖视角的分析，为候选人竞选策略提供了新的见解。