In 2022, AI image generators crossed a threshold, enabling much more efficient and dynamic production of photorealistic deepfake images than before. This enabled opportunities for creative and positive uses of these models. However, it also enabled unprecedented opportunities for the low-effort creation of AI-generated non-consensual intimate imagery (AIG-NCII), including AI-generated child sexual abuse material (AIG-CSAM). Empirically, these harms were principally enabled by a small number of models that were trained on web data with pornographic content, released with open weights, and insufficiently safeguarded. In this paper, we observe ways in which the same patterns are emerging with video generation models in 2025. Specifically, we analyze how a small number of open-weight AI video generation models have become the dominant tools for photorealistic AIG-NCII video generation. We then analyze the literature on model safeguards and conclude that (1) developers who openly release the weights of capable video generation models without appropriate data curation and/or post-training safeguards foreseeably contribute to mitigatable downstream harm, and (2) model distribution platforms that do not proactively moderate individual misuse or models designed for AIG-NCII foreseeably amplify this harm. While there are no perfect defenses against AIG-NCII and AIG-CSAM from open-weight AI models, we argue that risk management by model developers and distributors, informed by emerging safeguard techniques, will substantially affect the future ease of creating AIG-NCII and AIG-CSAM with generative AI video tools.

翻译：2022年，AI图像生成器跨越了一个门槛，使得比以往更高效、更动态地生成照片级逼真的深度伪造图像成为可能。这为这些模型的创意性和积极应用开辟了机遇，但也为低门槛、大规模生成未经同意的人工智能生成私密图像（AIG-NCII）——包括人工智能生成的儿童性虐待材料（AIG-CSAM）——创造了前所未有的可能。实证表明，这些危害主要由少数模型引发：这些模型基于包含色情内容的网络数据训练，以开放权重形式发布，且安全防护不足。本文观察了2025年视频生成模型中出现的相同模式。具体而言，我们分析了少数开放权重AI视频生成模型如何成为照片级逼真AIG-NCII视频生成的主导工具。随后，我们基于模型安全防护的相关文献分析得出结论：（1）在未进行适当的数据筛选和/或训练后安全防护的情况下，公开发布能力型视频生成模型权重的开发者可预见到其行为会加剧可缓解的下游危害；（2）未主动监管个体滥用行为或专为AIG-NCII设计的模型的分发平台，可预见到会放大此类危害。尽管针对开放权重AI模型的AIG-NCII和AIG-CSAM不存在绝对防御手段，但我们认为，模型开发者与分发商基于新兴安全防护技术进行风险管理，将显著影响未来利用生成式AI视频工具制造AIG-NCII和AIG-CSAM的难易程度。