The development of Automated Driving Systems (ADSs) has made significant progress in the last years. To enable the deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) equipped with such ADSs, regulations concerning the approval of these systems need to be established. In 2021, the World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations has approved a new United Nations regulation concerning the approval of Automated Lane Keeping Systems (ALKSs). An important aspect of this regulation is that "the activated system shall not cause any collisions that are reasonably foreseeable and preventable." The phrasing of "reasonably foreseeable and preventable" might be subjected to different interpretations and, therefore, this might result in disagreements among AV developers and the authorities that are requested to approve AVs. The objective of this work is to propose a method for quantifying what is "reasonably foreseeable and preventable". The proposed method considers the Operational Design Domain (ODD) of the system and can be applied to any ODD. Having a quantitative method for determining what is reasonably foreseeable and preventable provides developers, authorities, and the users of ADSs a better understanding of the residual risks to be expected when deploying these systems in real traffic. Using our proposed method, we can estimate what collisions are reasonably foreseeable and preventable. This will help in setting requirements regarding the safety of ADSs and can lead to stronger justification for design decisions and test coverage for developing ADSs.

翻译：自动驾驶系统（ADSs）在过去几年取得了显著进展。为了推广配备此类系统的自动驾驶车辆（AVs），需要制定有关这些系统审批的法规。2021年，世界车辆法规协调论坛批准了一项关于自动车道保持系统（ALKSs）审批的新联合国法规。该法规的一个重要方面是“激活后的系统不得造成任何合理可预见且可避免的碰撞”。“合理可预见且可避免”这一表述可能存在多种解释，因此可能导致自动驾驶车辆开发商与负责审批车辆的监管机构之间产生分歧。本文旨在提出一种量化“合理可预见且可避免”的方法。该方法考虑了系统的运行设计域（ODD），并可适用于任何ODD。通过确定合理可预见且可避免碰撞的定量方法，开发商、监管机构及自动驾驶系统用户能够更清晰地了解在真实交通中部署这些系统时预期存在的残余风险。利用我们提出的方法，可以评估哪些碰撞属于合理可预见且可避免的范畴。这将有助于制定自动驾驶系统的安全要求，并为设计决策及系统开发中的测试覆盖范围提供更有力的依据。