Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family Planning Estimation Model (FPEM), a Bayesian hierarchical time series model producing annual estimates of modern contraceptive use while sharing information across countries and regions. This paper evaluates how well FPEM estimates align with survey data using time series diagnostic indices from the wdiexplorer R package, which account for countries nested within sub-regions. Visualisation of survey data, modelled trajectories, and diagnostics enables assessment of model performance, highlighting where trends align and where discrepancies occur.

翻译：计划生育是全球发展优先事项，也是生殖健康的关键指标。各国调查数据存在的缺口给监测进展带来了挑战。联合国人口司通过计划生育估计模型（FPEM）应对这一问题，该模型是一种贝叶斯分层时间序列模型，可在国家和地区间共享信息，从而生成现代避孕措施使用率的年度估计。本文使用来自wdiexplorer R包的时间序列诊断指标（该指标考虑了国家嵌套于次区域的情况）评估了FPEM估计与调查数据的吻合程度。通过可视化展示调查数据、建模轨迹及诊断结果，能够评估模型性能，突出显示趋势一致与存在差异的区域。