Solar flare prediction studies have been recently conducted with the use of Space-Weather MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager onboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Active Region Patches (SMARP) and Space-Weather HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory) Active Region Patches (SHARP), which are two currently available data products containing magnetic field characteristics of solar active regions. The present work is an effort to combine them into one data product, and perform some initial statistical analyses in order to further expand their application in space weather forecasting. The combined data are derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP with SHARP parameters, which can then be spatially reduced to create uniform multivariate time series. The resulting combined MDI-HMI dataset currently spans the period between April 4, 1996, and December 13, 2022, and may be extended to a more recent date. This provides an opportunity to correlate and compare it with other space weather time series, such as the daily solar flare index or the statistical properties of the soft X-ray flux measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a relationship may exist, where some magnetic field properties of active regions lead the flare index in time. Applying the rolling window technique makes it possible to see how this leader-follower dynamic varies with time. Preliminary results indicate that areas of high correlation generally correspond to increased flare activity during the peak solar cycle.

翻译：近期太阳耀斑预报研究采用了空间天气MDI（太阳和日球层天文台搭载的迈克尔逊多普勒成像仪）活动区图（SMARP）和空间天气HMI（太阳动力学天文台搭载的日震与磁成像仪）活动区图（SHARP）两类数据产品，二者均包含太阳活动区的磁场特征。本研究致力于将两者融合为统一数据产品，并开展初步统计分析，以拓展其在空间天气预测中的应用。融合数据通过对SMARP与SHARP参数进行滤波、重定标及合并获得，经空间降维后可生成均匀多元时间序列。目前生成的MDI-HMI融合数据集覆盖1996年4月4日至2022年12月13日，并可延伸至更近期时段，这为将其与日耀斑指数、地球静止轨道环境业务卫星（GOES）测量的软X射线通量统计特征等其他空间天气时间序列进行关联与对比提供了可能。时滞互相关分析揭示，部分活动区磁场参数在时间序列上领先耀斑指数，表明两者可能存在时序关联。运用滚动窗口技术可观测这种领先-滞后关系的时变特征。初步结果表明，高相关时段通常对应太阳活动周峰期的耀斑活动增强期。