Our research is closely related to ontological studies in mathematics. It provides crucial insights into the nature of decisions and strategies characterized by Markov moments. In a stopping game, a holistic decision-maker would evaluate comprehensive information by assessing the probabilities of various outcomes and their associated payoffs. This involves understanding the current state, historical data, and potential future scenarios. Such a decision-maker must also consider strategic interactions by anticipating and accounting for the strategies of other players. They must be flexible in adapting their strategy as the game evolves and able to integrate uncertainty by incorporating risk preferences and tolerances. They would perform scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of different stopping times under varying conditions. The goal of this modeling and its implementation in psychological practice is to introduce a novel method for assessing the state of players, leveraging deviations from rational strategies as diagnostic indicators of their psychological and decision-making profiles. The details of other models will be subject to contributed papers. The article presents the theoretical basis for combining various factors when modeling decision-making processes. The original title is "Rationality, Deviation, and Diagnosis: A Holistic Approach to Stopping Games" and will be used when it is possible to describe and interpret the results of the experiments we write about in the last section of the paper.
翻译:我们的研究与数学中的本体论研究密切相关,为马尔可夫时刻所表征的决策和策略的本质提供了关键见解。在停止博弈中,整体决策者会通过评估各种结果的概率及其相关收益来评估全面信息,这涉及理解当前状态、历史数据和潜在未来情景。此类决策者还必须通过预测和考虑其他参与者的策略来处理战略互动,随着博弈进展灵活调整策略,并通过整合风险偏好和容忍度来应对不确定性,同时进行情景分析以评估不同停止时间在各种条件下的影响。该建模及其在心理学实践中的实施目标,是引入一种评估参与者状态的新方法,利用与理性策略的偏差作为其心理与决策轮廓的诊断指标。其他模型的细节将由后续投稿论文阐述。本文为建模决策过程中整合多种因素提供了理论基础。原始标题为“理性、偏差与诊断:停止博弈的整体方法”,该标题将在我们能够描述并解释本文最后部分所撰写实验的结果时使用。