The 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election is not just a critical geopolitical event, it also engages with long-standing debate in politics regarding the factors that lead to the rise of new political parties and candidates. In 2021, the Economist called Taiwan "the most dangerous place on earth" due to its critical role in a fragile supply chain. Additionally, a four-candidate race has emerged in a traditionally bipartisan election which begs the question: how will voters realign given the choice of four candidates? Leveraging more than a million posts on social media, we analyze user (predominantly Taiwanese) discourse and engagement along the axes of national identity, issue topic, and partisan alignment. Results reveal alternative candidates (Ko and Gou) draw attention from the fringes rather than the center relative to national identity, and traditional candidates derive more engagement from the traditional media and salience to geopolitical issues. Crucially, in-group references generate more engagement than out-group references, contrary to Western-based studies. We discuss how the dissolution of Taiwan's single-issue society may not just lead to more viable candidates and multi-issue discourse, but the misalignment of national and partisan identity may heal deep-seated partisan cleavages.

翻译：2024年台湾地区领导人选举不仅是一起关键的地缘政治事件，亦深刻介入政治学中关于新政党与候选人崛起动因的长期争论。2021年，《经济学人》因其在脆弱供应链中的关键角色，将台湾称为“地球上最危险的地方”。此外，在传统两党制选举中出现了四名候选人竞逐的局面，这引出一个关键问题：面对四名候选人的选择，选民将如何调整自身立场？通过利用社交媒体上超过一百万条帖文，我们沿国家认同、议题分类与政党立场三个维度，分析了用户（主要为台湾用户）的话语与互动模式。结果显示，非传统候选人（柯文哲与郭台铭）在国家认同议题上吸引的是边缘而非中间选民的关注，而传统候选人则从传统媒体及地缘政治议题的显著性中获得了更多互动。关键在于，与西方研究结论相反，群体内指涉比群体外指涉能引发更多互动。我们探讨了台湾单一议题社会的瓦解，不仅可能催生更多有竞争力的候选人与多议题话语格局，而且国家认同与政党认同之间的错位，或许反而能够弥合深层次的政党分歧。