Open Source Software (OSS) communities face a wave of uncertainty as Generative AI (GenAI) rapidly transforms how software is created, maintained, and governed. Without clear frameworks, communities risk being overwhelmed by the complexity and ambiguity introduced by GenAI, threatening the collaborative ethos that underpins OSS. To address this gap, we present a Socio-Technical System (STS)-guided conceptual framework that applies McLuhan's Tetrad as an analytic lens to articulate how GenAI reshapes the socio-technical dynamics of OSS development. Through a scenario-based exploration across four components of the STS-guided framework, software practices, documentation, community engagement, and governance, we identify plausible socio-technical impacts and outline a corresponding Roadmap for sustaining OSS communities in the Age of GenAI. This Roadmap will enable OSS researchers and practitioners to interpret emerging transformations, anticipate challenges, and design interventions that foster long-term community resilience. By adopting this framework, OSS leaders and researchers can proactively shape the future of their ecosystems, rather than simply reacting to technological upheaval.

翻译：随着生成式人工智能（GenAI）迅速改变软件的创建、维护与治理方式，开源软件（OSS）社区正面临一波不确定性浪潮。若缺乏清晰的框架，社区可能被GenAI引入的复杂性与模糊性所淹没，进而威胁支撑OSS的协作精神。为填补这一空白，我们提出了一个社会技术系统（STS）指导的概念框架，该框架运用麦克卢汉的媒介四元律作为分析透镜，以阐明GenAI如何重塑OSS开发的社会技术动态。通过对STS指导框架的四个组成部分——软件实践、文档、社区参与和治理——进行基于情境的探索，我们识别了可能的社会技术影响，并勾勒出相应的路线图，以在GenAI时代维持OSS社区。该路线图将使OSS研究者与实践者能够解读新兴变革、预见挑战，并设计促进社区长期韧性的干预措施。通过采纳此框架，OSS领导者与研究者可以主动塑造其生态系统的未来，而非仅仅对技术剧变做出被动反应。