The law of maturity is the belief that less-observed events are becoming mature and, therefore, more likely to occur in the future. Previous studies have shown that the assumption of infinite exchangeability contradicts the law of maturity. In particular, it has been shown that infinite exchangeability contradicts probabilistic descriptions of the law of maturity such as the gambler's belief and the belief in maturity. We show that the weaker assumption of finite exchangeability is compatible with both the gambler's belief and belief in maturity. We provide sufficient conditions under which these beliefs hold under finite exchangeability. These conditions are illustrated with commonly used parametric models.

翻译：成熟法则是相信不为人知的事件正在变得成熟,因此今后更有可能发生。以前的研究表明,无限互换的假设与成熟法则相矛盾,特别是,事实证明,无限互换性与对成熟法的概率描述相矛盾,如赌徒的信念和对成熟的信念。我们证明,对有限互换性的较弱的假设与赌徒的信念和对成熟的信念是相容的。我们提供了这些信念在有限互换性下维持的充分条件。这些条件用常用的参数模型加以说明。