Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we advance existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately accounts for the non-Markovian nature of the process. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to reduce the model to the corresponding differential equations, enabling us to utilize existing methods for analyzing the system and fitting the model to observations. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models.

翻译：登革热是一种由伊蚊传播的媒介传染病。这些蚊虫的全球扩散及日益加重的疾病负担，凸显了构建能够评估登革热暴发条件并量化暴发风险的时空风险地图的必要性。由于伊蚊的生命周期深受栖息地温度影响，大量研究利用蚊虫温度依赖性发育速率构建病毒传播与暴发风险模型。本研究通过开发一个准确反映过程非马尔可夫特性的蚊虫生命周期机制模型，推进了现有研究。通过将模型拟合至人类登革热病例数据，我们估算了若干模型参数，从而构建了全球时空登革热风险地图。该风险模型利用温度和降水数据评估特定区域对登革热暴发的环境适宜性。此外，我们展示了如何将模型简化为相应的微分方程，从而能够利用现有方法分析系统并将模型拟合至观测数据。该方法可进一步推广至当前用精度较低的马尔可夫模型描述的其他类似非马尔可夫过程。