We present a comprehensive Bayesian approach to paleodemography, emphasizing the proper handling of uncertainties. We then apply that framework to survey data from Cyprus, and quantify the uncertainties in the paleodemographic estimates to demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian approach and to show the large uncertainties present in current paleodemographic models and data. We also discuss methods to reduce the uncertainties and improve the efficacy of paleodemographic models.

翻译：我们提出了一种全面的贝叶斯方法用于古人口学研究，强调对不确定性的正确处理。随后将该框架应用于塞浦路斯的调查数据，通过量化古人口学估计中的不确定性，展示了贝叶斯方法的适用性，并揭示了当前古人口学模型与数据中存在的巨大不确定性。我们还讨论了减少不确定性、提升古人口学模型效力的方法。