: One of the prominent challenges being faced by agricultural sciences is the onset of climate change which is adversely affecting every aspect of cropping. Modelling of climate change at macro level have been carried out at large scale and there is ample amount of research publications available for that. But at micro level like at state level or district level there are lesser studies. District level studies can help in preparing specific plans for the mitigation of adverse effects of climate change at local level. An attempt has been made in this paper to model the monthly rainfall of Varanasi district of the state of Uttar Pradesh with the help of probability models. Firstly, the pattern of the climate change over 122 years has been unveiled by using exploratory analysis and using multivariate techniques like cluster analysis and then probability models have been fitted for selected months

翻译：农业科学面临的一个突出挑战是气候变化的发生，它正在对作物种植的各个方面产生不利影响。宏观层面的气候变化建模已在大规模范围内展开，并有大量相关研究文献可供参考。然而，在州或地区等微观层面，相关研究较少。地区层面的研究有助于制定具体计划，以缓解气候变化在地方层面的不利影响。本文尝试借助概率模型对北方邦瓦拉纳西地区的月降雨量进行建模。首先，通过探索性分析和多元技术（如聚类分析）揭示了122年来的气候变化模式，随后为选定月份拟合了概率模型。