Decentralized prediction markets (DePMs) allow open participation in event-based wagering without fully relying on centralized intermediaries. We review the history of DePMs which date back to 2011 and includes hundreds of proposals. Perhaps surprising, modern DePMs like Polymarket deviate materially from earlier designs like Truthcoin and Augur v1. We use our review to present a modular workflow comprising eight stages: underlying infrastructure, market topic, share structure and pricing, market initialization, trading, market resolution, settlement, and archiving. For each module, we enumerate the design variants, analyzing trade-offs around decentralization, expressiveness, and manipulation resistance. We also identify open problems for researchers interested in this ecosystem.

翻译：去中心化预测市场（DePMs）允许在不完全依赖中心化中介的情况下，公开参与基于事件的投注。我们回顾了可追溯至2011年的DePMs发展历程，涵盖了数百项提案。或许令人惊讶的是，现代DePMs（如Polymarket）与早期设计（如Truthcoin和Augur v1）存在显著差异。基于此综述，我们提出了一个包含八个阶段的模块化工作流程：底层基础设施、市场主题、份额结构与定价、市场初始化、交易、市场裁决、结算与归档。针对每个模块，我们列举了不同的设计变体，并围绕去中心化程度、表达能力和抗操纵性分析了其权衡取舍。我们还为对此生态系统感兴趣的研究者指出了若干开放性问题。