We show that the leading bubble test suffers severe size distortion when fundamentals incorporate general-purpose technology adoption. Embedding a hump-shaped technology shock in the Campbell-Shiller present-value model, we prove that the fundamental price becomes locally explosive during adoption, contaminating the test's limit distribution with a non-centrality parameter proportional to the shock's peak. We propose a fundamental-versus-speculative decomposition that projects prices onto observable technology proxies and applies the test to the residual. Empirically, the decomposition eliminates evidence of speculation in the 2020-2025 AI rally while confirming a speculative peak confined to December 1999-March 2000 in the dot-com episode.

翻译：我们表明，当基本面因素纳入通用目的技术的采用时，主流泡沫检验会出现严重的规模扭曲。通过将驼峰状技术冲击嵌入坎贝尔-希勒现值模型，我们证明基本面价格在技术采用期间会呈现局部爆发性，从而以与冲击峰值成比例的非中心参数污染检验的极限分布。我们提出一种基本面与投机性分解方法，将价格投影到可观测的技术代理变量上，并对残差应用该检验。实证结果显示，该分解消除了2020-2025年人工智能上涨行情中的投机证据，同时确认了互联网泡沫事件中仅局限于1999年12月至2000年3月的投机峰值。