Global climate changes are related to the ocean's store of carbon. We study a carbonate system of the upper ocean, which has metastable and oscillatory regimes, under small random fluctuations. We calculate the most probable transition path via a geometric minimum action method in the context of the large deviations theory. By examining the most probable transition paths from metastable to oscillatory regimes for various external carbon input rates, we find two different transition patterns, which gives us an early warning sign for the dramatic change in the carbonate state of the ocean.

翻译：全球气候变化与海洋碳储量相关。 我们研究上海碳酸盐系统,该系统在小的随机波动下具有元化和血管系统。 我们根据大偏差理论,通过几何最低行动方法计算最可能的过渡途径。 通过研究从元化到各种外部碳输入率的螺旋机制的最可能的过渡途径, 我们发现两种不同的过渡模式, 为我们提供了一个海洋碳酸盐状态发生巨大变化的预警信号。