Impact assessments have emerged as a common way to identify the negative and positive implications of AI deployment, with the goal of avoiding the downsides of its use. It is undeniable that impact assessments are important - especially in the case of rapidly proliferating technologies such as generative AI. But it is also essential to critically interrogate the current literature and practice on impact assessment, to identify its shortcomings, and to develop new approaches that are responsive to these limitations. In this provocation, we do just that by first critiquing the current impact assessment literature and then proposing a novel approach that addresses our concerns: Scenario-Based Sociotechnical Envisioning.

翻译：影响评估已成为识别人工智能部署负面与积极影响的常用方法，其目标在于规避技术应用中的潜在风险。不可否认，影响评估具有重要意义——对于生成式人工智能这类快速扩散的技术而言尤为关键。然而，对当前影响评估领域的文献与实践进行批判性审视、识别其固有缺陷，并针对这些局限性开发新的方法论同样至关重要。本文通过以下路径展开探讨：首先批判性分析现有影响评估文献，继而提出一种应对当前问题的新路径——基于情境的社会技术前瞻框架。