Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is the dominant paradigm for inference-time scaling in language models, yet the causal influence of individual steps on the final answer remains poorly understood. In this work, we use answer logits at the end of each reasoning step to estimate each step's causal importance to the final answer and intermediate guesses, shedding light on the answer formation process of several reasoning model families. Across diverse tasks, we find that reasoning typically crosses a commitment boundary, a sharp transition from transient intermediate guesses to a stable, high-confidence answer. This transition often happens in a single step, well before the model's reasoning block ends, and is followed by epiphenomenal CoT steps that leave the final answer probability unaltered. Using attention probes, we show that answer-formation stages can be linearly decoded from the activations of intermediate reasoning steps with high accuracy, showing robust generalization to unseen reasoning tasks. We leverage this property for early-exiting reasoning blocks at the commitment boundary location, reducing the length of CoTs up to 55% with negligible impact on model performance.

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