We present a comprehensive Bayesian approach to paleodemography, emphasizing the proper handling of uncertainties. We then apply that framework to survey data from Cyprus, and quantify the uncertainties in the paleodemographic estimates to demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian approach and to show the large uncertainties present in current paleodemographic models and data. We also discuss methods to reduce the uncertainties and improve the efficacy of paleodemographic models.

翻译：我们提出了一种全面的贝叶斯方法用于古人口统计学，强调对不确定性的正确处理。随后，我们将该框架应用于塞浦路斯的调查数据，并量化了古人口统计估计中的不确定性，以证明贝叶斯方法的适用性，并揭示当前古人口统计学模型与数据中存在的巨大不确定性。我们还讨论了降低不确定性及提高古人口统计学模型效能的方法。