This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.

翻译：本研究提出了一种评估国家层面粮食安全风险的新方法，采用融合共享社会经济路径（SSP）与典型浓度路径（RCP）的概率情景分析框架。该方法允许将包含社会经济与气候因素的每个情景视为能够生成多样化轨迹的独立模型，从而为理解不同未来条件下粮食安全风险提供了更具动态性的视角。本文详述了所采用的方法论，通过聚焦埃及和埃塞俄比亚粮食安全挑战的针对性分析展示了其适用性，并强调在国家粮食安全评估中必须考虑社会经济与气候因素的综合谱系。