In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to analyze an agent who misinterprets or misperceives the true decision problem she faces. We show that a wide range of behavior observed in experimental settings manifest as failures to perceive implications, in other words, to properly account for the logical relationships between various payoff relevant contingencies. We present a behavioral definition of perceived implication, thereby providing an elicitation technique, and show that an agent's account of implication identifies a subjective state-space that underlies her behavior. By analyzing this state-space, we characterize distinct benchmarks of logical sophistication that drive empirical phenomena. We disentangle static and dynamic rationality. Thus, our framework delivers both a methodology for assessing an agent's level of contingent thinking and a strategy for identifying her beliefs in the absence full rationality.

翻译：本文构建了一个理论框架，用以分析错误理解或错误感知其所面临的真实决策问题的行为主体。我们论证，在实验环境中观察到的广泛行为表现，本质上是未能感知推论（即未能恰当考虑不同收益相关偶发事件之间的逻辑关系）所致。我们提出了感知推论的的行为定义，并由此提供了一种揭示技术。研究表明，行为主体对推论的认知能识别出其行为背后的主观状态空间。通过分析该状态空间，我们刻画了驱动经验现象的不同逻辑精炼度基准，并分离了静态与动态理性。因此，我们的框架既提供了评估行为主体偶发性思维水平的方法论，也提供了在缺乏完全理性条件下识别其信念的策略。