With the climate change context, many prospective studies, generally encompassing all areas of society, imagine possible futures to expand the range of options. The role of digital technologies within these possible futures is rarely specifically targeted. Which digital technologies and methodologies do these studies envision in a world that has mitigated and adapted to climate change? In this paper, we propose a typology for scenarios to survey digital technologies and their applications in 14 prospective studies and their corresponding 35 future scenarios. Our finding is that all the scenarios consider digital technology to be present in the future. We observe that only a few of them question our relationship with digital technology and all aspects related to its materiality, and none of the general studies envision breakthroughs concerning technologies used today. Our result demonstrates the lack of a systemic view of information and communication technologies. We therefore argue for new prospective studies to envision the future of ICT.
翻译:在气候变化的背景下,许多前瞻性研究(通常涵盖社会各个领域)通过想象可能的未来,以拓展选项范围。在这些可能的未来中,数字技术的作用很少被具体探讨。这些研究设想在一个已经减缓和适应气候变化的世界中,会采用哪些数字技术和方法?在本文中,我们提出了一种情景分类法,用于调查14项前瞻性研究及其对应的35个未来情景中的数字技术及其应用。我们的发现是,所有情景都认为数字技术将在未来存在。我们观察到,只有少数情景质疑我们与数字技术的关系及其物质性相关的各个方面,且没有一项综合性研究设想当前所用技术会出现突破性进展。我们的结果揭示了信息技术与通信技术系统性视角的缺失。因此,我们主张开展新的前瞻性研究,以展望信息通信技术的未来。