Recent factor graph approaches to continuum robot state estimation have been successful for quasi-static applications and spatiotemporal estimation using white-noise kinematic motion priors. However, when inertial effects are significant, these approximations may fail to capture the underlying physics, limiting accuracy during dynamic motions. In contrast, our approach approximates the Cosserat rod dynamics of continuum robots. We write inertia and damping as equivalent applied loads, so that the dynamic balance retains the algebraic form of the static one from prior work with quasi-static robots. Without backbone observations, the framework reduces to a stochastic forward simulation of the robot's motion. Given observations, it jointly refines kinematic and dynamic states and infers external loads, among other states. We validate the approach through simulation and experiments, demonstrating stochastic forward simulation as well as state estimation on tendon-driven continuum robots.

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