This study applies the Causal Fairness Analysis (CFA) framework of Plecko and Bareinboim (2024) to decompose the total variation in STEM outcomes attributable to ADHD status into direct, indirect, and spurious components using Pearl's Structural Causal Model. Drawing on nationally representative data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, this study examines two outcomes: cumulative STEM GPA and science identity. Total variation decomposition reveals a statistically significant ADHD penalty on STEM GPA (TV = -0.670), of which 63.3% is attributable to the direct effect (x-DE), indicating that the majority of the disparity operates through pathways not mediated by observed sociodemographic or academic confounders. In contrast, the effect on science identity is small and non-significant (TV = -0.068). Counterfactual direct effect analysis using the one-step debiased estimator further reveals that the direct effect is structured by race, with notable variation across racial and ethnic subgroups. Sensitivity analyses confirm robustness to moderate unmeasured confounding. These findings advance the understanding of ADHD-related inequities in STEM education and highlight the need for fairness-aware policies that address both direct institutional barriers and their differential impact across intersecting social identities.

翻译：本研究应用Plecko与Bareinboim（2024）提出的因果公平性分析（CFA）框架，基于Pearl结构因果模型，将ADHD状态对STEM结果的总差异分解为直接效应、间接效应与虚假成分。利用2009年高中纵向研究中具有全国代表性的数据，本研究考察了两个结果指标：累计STEM绩点与科学身份认同。总差异分解揭示了ADHD对STEM绩点存在显著统计意义上的惩罚效应（TV = -0.670），其中63.3%可归因于直接效应（x-DE），表明大部分差异通过未被观察到的社会人口或学业混淆因素中介的路径发挥作用。相比之下，对科学身份认同的影响较小且不显著（TV = -0.068）。基于一步去偏估计量的反事实直接效应分析进一步揭示，直接效应具有种族结构性特征，不同种族与民族子群体间存在显著变异。敏感性分析证实结果对中等程度的未测量混淆变量具有稳健性。这些发现加深了对STEM教育中与ADHD相关不平等的理解，并凸显了制定兼顾直接制度性障碍及其对不同交叉社会身份差异化影响的公平导向政策的必要性。