RiO-DETR is the first real-time end-to-end transformer for oriented object detection, yet further localization gains require a more expressive box representation. Although distributional regression has succeeded in horizontal DETRs, extending it to oriented detection introduces geometry-misaligned boundary modeling and topology-inconsistent orientation refinement. We present RiO-DETRv2, a geometry-aware uncertainty modeling framework for real-time oriented object detection. To resolve the geometry mismatch, Object-Aligned Boundary Distribution Refinement represents box boundaries as probability distributions in an object-aligned coordinate system and progressively refines them across decoder layers. For better orientation topology consistency, we introduce Circular-to-Local Angular Residual Refinement that transitions from global periodic search to local fine-grained estimation. Unified OBB Quality-Aligned Learning further aligns classification, boundary and angular refinement with complete-OBB localization quality. Together, these designs improve localization without compromising efficiency, achieving a better balance between speed and accuracy. Specifically, RiO-DETRv2-l/x achieves 53.7/54.1 mAP50-95 on DOTA, outperforming RiO-DETR-l/x by 1.2/1.5 points with nearly unchanged computational cost. Code is available at https://github.com/RicePasteM/RiO-DETRv2.

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