Many large and small companies in the tech and startup sector have been laying off an unusually high number of workers in 2022 and 2023. We are interested in predicting when this period of layoffs might end, without resorting to economic forecasts. We observe that a sample of layoffs up to March 31, 2023 follow the pattern of noisy observations from an SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) model. A model is fitted to the data using an analytical solution to the SIR model obtained by Kr\"{o}ger and Schlickeiser. From the fitted model we estimate that the number of weekly layoffs will return to normal levels around the end of 2023.

翻译：许多科技和初创领域的大、小公司在 2022 和 2023 年经历了异常高比例的裁员。我们旨在不借助经济预测的前提下，预测本轮裁员潮可能何时结束。我们观察到，截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的样本裁员数据符合 SIR（易感-感染-移除）模型下含噪声观测的模式。利用 Kröger 和 Schlickeiser 获得的 SIR 模型解析解对数据进行了模型拟合。根据拟合后的模型，我们估计每周裁员人数将在 2023 年底左右恢复到正常水平。