Ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC) requires the packet error rate to be on the order of $10^{-9}$-$10^{-5}$. Determining the appropriate transmission rate to satisfy this ultra-reliability constraint requires deriving the statistics of the channel in the ultra-reliable region and then incorporating these statistics into the rate selection. In this paper, we propose a framework for determining the rate selection for ultra-reliable communications based on the extreme value theory (EVT). We first model the wireless channel at URLLC by estimating the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) best fitting to the tail distribution of the received powers, i.e., the power values below a certain threshold. Then, we determine the maximum transmission rate by incorporating the Pareto distribution into the rate selection function. Finally, we validate the selected rate by computing the resulting error probability. Based on the data collected within the engine compartment of Fiat Linea, we demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed methodology in determining the maximum transmission rate compared to the traditional extrapolation-based approaches.

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