The demand-supply balance of electricity systems is fundamentally linked to climate conditions. In light of this, the present study aims to model the effect of climate change on the European electricity system, specifically on its long-term reliability. A resource adequate power system -- a system where electricity supply covers demand -- is sensitive to generation capacity, demand patterns, and the network structure and capacity. Climate change is foreseen to affect each of these components. In this analysis, we focused on two drivers of power system adequacy: the impact of temperature variations on electricity demand, and of water inflows changes on hydro generation. Using a post-processing approach, based on results found in the literature, the inputs of a large-scale electricity market model covering the European region were modified. The results show that climate change may decrease total LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) hours in Europe by more than 50%, as demand will largely decrease because of a higher temperatures during winter. We found that the climate change impact on demand tends to decrease LOLE values, while the climate change effects on hydrological conditions tend to increase LOLE values. The study is built on a limited amount of open-source data and can flexibly incorporate various sets of assumptions. Outcomes also show the current difficulties to reliably model the effects of climate change on power system adequacy. Overall, our presented method displays the relevance of climate change effects in electricity network studies.

翻译：电力系统的供需平衡与气候条件密切相关。基于此，本研究旨在模拟气候变化对欧洲电力系统，特别是其长期可靠性的影响。一个资源充裕的电力系统——即电力供应能够覆盖需求的系统——对发电容量、需求模式以及网络结构和容量都很敏感。预计气候变化将影响这些组成部分中的每一个。在本分析中，我们专注于影响电力系统充裕度的两个驱动因素：温度变化对电力需求的影响，以及水流量变化对水力发电的影响。采用基于文献研究结果的后处理方法，我们对覆盖欧洲地区的大规模电力市场模型输入进行了修改。结果表明，气候变化可能使欧洲的总LOLE（失负荷期望）小时数减少50%以上，因为冬季气温升高将导致需求大幅下降。我们发现，气候变化对需求的影响倾向于降低LOLE值，而气候变化对水文条件的影响则倾向于增加LOLE值。本研究基于有限的开源数据构建，并能灵活地纳入各种假设条件。研究结果也显示了当前可靠模拟气候变化对电力系统充裕度影响的困难。总体而言，我们所提出的方法展示了气候变化影响在电网研究中的相关性。