Recent progress in deep learning, a special form of machine learning, has led to remarkable capabilities machines can now be endowed with: they can read and understand free flowing text, reason and bargain with human counterparts, translate texts between languages, learn how to take decisions to maximize certain outcomes, etc. Today, machines have revolutionized the detection of cancer, the prediction of protein structures, the design of drugs, the control of nuclear fusion reactors etc. Although these capabilities are still in their infancy, it seems clear that their continued refinement and application will result in a technological impact on nearly all social and economic areas of human activity, the likes of which we have not seen before. In this article, I will share my view as to how AI will likely impact asset management in general and I will provide a mental framework that will equip readers with a simple criterion to assess whether and to what degree a given fund really exploits deep learning and whether a large disruption risk from deep learning exist.
翻译:深度学习作为机器学习的一种特殊形式,其最新进展赋予了机器前所未有的能力:它们可以阅读并理解自由文本、与人类进行推理与谈判、实现语言间的翻译、学习制定决策以最大化特定成果等。如今,机器已经在癌症检测、蛋白质结构预测、药物设计、核聚变反应堆控制等领域引发了革命性变革。尽管这些能力仍处于初级阶段,但显而易见的是,其持续完善与应用将对几乎所有人类活动的社会与经济领域产生技术冲击,其影响力之深远史无前例。本文将阐述我对于人工智能如何普遍影响资产管理的见解,并提供一套思维框架,使读者能够掌握一个简单标准,用于评估某个特定基金是否真正利用了深度学习及其利用程度,并判断是否存在由深度学习引发的大规模颠覆风险。